Turkey is deeply concerned with signs that the United States and Russia may come to an understanding to close the Turkish-Syrian border, which would have profound strategic and geopolitical implications.

In his well-received report titled “Russia in the Middle East: Moscow’s Objectives, Priorities, and Policy Drivers,” Carnegie Moscow Center Director Dmitri Trenin says, “For the foreseeable future, Moscow and Ankara are likely to be rivals or even adversaries. The Russian intervention in Syria, which was the actual cause of the rupture — the air incident was a pretext — has undercut Turkey’s policies in its near neighborhood and materially damaged its interests in Syria. As long as [Turkish President] Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains in charge and Russia stays on its present course, the Russian-Turkish relationship will be an exercise in conflict management, at best.”

As if to confirm this hypothesis, only two weeks after the report's publication, Russian President Vladimir Putin told US President Barack Obama that Turkey’s border with Syria should be closed to help preserve the cease-fire. That was on April 18.

The report has a section titled “The United States: A Rival and a Potential Partner.” Trenin, a well-informed analyst on Russia’s policies, writes, “Contrary to widespread US impressions, the Russians do not see President Barack Obama’s hesitancy to use force in Syria as a weakness to be exploited, but rather as prudence of someone who realizes the limits of American power in the region. … The Kremlin also appreciated the Obama administration’s constructive approach to relations with Iran, and, despite the Ukraine crisis, continued to cooperate with Washington to reach the nuclear agreement with Tehran in 2015.”