Why France isn’t inviting Israel, Palestine to peace process conference
As a first step to relaunch a two-state solution process, France will convene at the end of May a conference of stakeholders, without the Israelis or the Palestinians.
The Paris conference on a two-state solution process, which will be convened May 30, is the first concrete step related to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process since the shuttle diplomacy of Secretary of State John Kerry in 2013-14. The French are inviting the Middle East Quartet representatives (United States, European Union, Russia and the United Nations), the Arab League and approximately 20 foreign ministers. Israel and Palestine are not invited, as the French want to prevent an Israeli no. The purpose is to convene a more operative international peace conference later in the summer in order to launch talks on a two-state solution between the parties themselves.
This is good news for Middle East peace hopefuls. A Washington conference would have been more useful, but probably out of the question in a US election year. France has decided to walk into the policy vacuum produced by US passivity and despair. This move reflects European concerns that, without a realistic prospect for a two-state solution process, the Israeli-Palestinian equation will be filled with growing violence, which compromises the position of moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. All EU partners share this view — some with greater enthusiasm (such as EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini), some with less (such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel).
The French move comes in the aftermath of active shuttle diplomacy by Paris’ special envoy Pierre Vimont. French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault will be visiting Jerusalem and Ramallah in mid-May, and he will continue holding talks with Kerry.
The US administration’s position is the missing link to a successful diplomatic effort. It is not clear yet what kind of policy risk President Barack Obama is ready to take, in light of the possibility of failure, or even a domestic risk given the US election year. The American representative in Paris will most probably not be Kerry himself, but rather a senior official or the US ambassador to France.
