Much reflection is taking place these days at the US State Department and the UN Security Council on a concrete policy move by the Obama administration regarding the Israeli-Palestinian two-state solution. The aim of the administration is not only to inject hope into the current situation of despair, but also to leave a policy platform to the next administration on future Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

The administration is now challenged by the Palestinian move at the United Nations to advance a statehood resolution. Such a resolution, probably submitted to the Security Council by France and Egypt, will condemn Israeli West Bank settlements as illegal and propose a two-state solution based on the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative with a border along the 1967 lines and a one-year timeline leading to Palestinian statehood.

According to a US diplomat in Tel Aviv, President Barack Obama would be reluctant to cast a veto at the Security Council. The one time so far that Obama vetoed a Security Council resolution was on a decision regarding Israeli settlements in February 2011. The US position, according to this diplomat, will depend on the wording of the proposed resolution. The United States insists on a rejection and halt to violence, terror and incitement to hatred, and opposes any mentioning of a timeline. The Palestinians agree to the rejection of violence and incitement together with a mentioning of the settler violence, but insist on a timeline for the conclusion of negotiations. For that reason, at this point, a US veto is more likely than not. There are formidable pressures on the president by members of Congress and, most probably, the Hillary Clinton campaign people, to continue traditional US policy by casting a veto.

French policymakers who are involved in the talks on the Palestinian move are eager to advance such a resolution in 2016, yet at the same time, they hope to create the conditions that would prevent a US veto. A senior Quai d’Orsay (French Foreign Ministry) official in the know of current talks between Washington, Cairo, Ramallah and Paris told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that the French have cautioned Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas not to move too hastily on the resolution: “We are not interested in a rhetorical Security Council resolution, but in an operative and strategic one. For this, the United States has to be onboard and Israel less rejectionist. 2016 must see the policy basis for a two-state solution.”