The day after President Vladimir Putin’s March 14 surprise announcement of Russia’s intention to withdraw its army from Syria, Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff, went before the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee and reportedly admitted, “We had no preliminary information prior to the Russian announcement last night about reducing involvement, just as others did not.” According to the chief of staff, Israel had, however, preliminary knowledge of Russia’s earlier decision regarding the beginning of its military involvement in Syria. “We had signs and reports received by Military Intelligence,” Eizenkot said.

The chief of staff's reference to “others” was evidently hinting that the United States had also been kept in the dark, unaware of Putin’s intention to leave Syria. Putin’s announcement was delivered while Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon was at a work meeting with his US counterpart, Ashton Carter, at the Pentagon. It is believed that Eizenkot was told by the entourage accompanying Ya'alon in Washington that the Americans had also been caught by surprise.

Eizenkot added that according to Israel’s assessment, the Russian withdrawal will be carried out gradually, and even after its completion, there will still be quite a few Russian forces in Syria. Moscow will maintain its two main bases there: the naval base in Tartus and the aerial base in Latakia. The IDF believes that the Russian S-400 missile battery that provides an almost hermetically sealed umbrella over the Russians in the Syrian skies will remain in place as a warning to Turkey and other power brokers in the region.

The best of Israel’s security brains, including the intelligence branches, are now examining the ramifications of the Russian withdrawal. Another scenario is also being probed, however — that the withdrawal may be a public relations move by Putin and actually involve an insignificant thinning of forces, but with continued military involvement on a daily basis.