Russian President Vladimir Putin’s abrupt announcement that Moscow has achieved its principal military objectives in Syria and will begin to withdraw the “main part” of its forces raises many important questions about Russia’s future role in Syria and in the Middle East. One of the most significant is whether Russia’s partial withdrawal from Syria could facilitate efforts to repair Moscow’s frayed relations with Saudi Arabia, a key regional power.
Of course, differences over Syria were not the first problem in Russian-Saudi relations. Moscow’s problems with Riyadh extend back to Saudi Arabia’s Cold War support for anti-Soviet fighters in Afghanistan. Russia’s leaders suspected similar Saudi support for Chechnya’s separatist rebels, who became increasingly Islamist during the course of the first war in Chechnya in the mid-1990s. As a result, Moscow continues to view much of Saudi Arabia’s foreign assistance — whether official or private — with considerable skepticism.
At the same time, notwithstanding a recent Russian-Saudi agreement to freeze oil production that has contributed to a notable strengthening of the ruble, some senior Russian officials still believe that their country was among the targets of Riyadh’s earlier willingness to allow an oil price collapse.
Likewise, on the Saudi side, Moscow’s decision to reduce its direct military role in Syria may address one source of tension without affecting others — especially Riyadh’s perception that Russia is aligned with its regional nemesis, Iran. So long as Russia continues to cooperate with Iran to bolster President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, the partial troop pullout may not do much to attenuate Saudi concerns about the Russian role in Syria. Moscow will have many options moving forward, including slowing or even reversing its withdrawal (if the Syrian government’s battlefield position deteriorates) or, alternatively, threatening to slow or reverse its withdrawal (if the Syrian government’s negotiating position deteriorates). None of these options would likely be popular among Saudi leaders.
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