The meaning of Aleppo

The give and take over which opposition parties and individuals are represented in the peace talks may in the end be a sideshow for the real trend in Syria, which is the progress of the Syrian army, backed by Russia and Iran, in retaking territory from the Islamic State (IS), Jabhat al-Nusra and other armed groups. Who is winning on the battlefield matters more than who fills the chairs in Vienna or Geneva, although this is not to disparage the many positive contributions the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) can and will make to help Syria’s transition. But the Syrian endgame is more likely to be found in Aleppo rather than in well-intentioned ISSG meetings in European cities.

This column wrote in November that the battle for Aleppo could determine Syria’s fate. It is worth reflecting on the meaning of Aleppo for Syria and the region. Aleppo, Syria’s largest city and its commercial hub, was also known as the “city of light” for its refined people and culture. There was no real legacy of oppression in Aleppo beyond the agonies and constraints of doing business with the Assad family and its various agents and enterprises. Aleppo is not Homs, and it is not Daraa, where there are histories of popular grievances. The Assads, by design, kept it that way.

Aleppo, therefore, represents the failed promise of the terrorist and armed groups that have offered little more than Islamic law and criminality. Aleppo, which is mostly Sunni, was sold a sectarian bill of goods by the opposition. And it has been a disaster for the people of Aleppo. The Syrian government’s barrel bombs and relentless sieges added to an unbearable existence.