Ankara falls into Moscow's trap
Ankara is now being compelled to backtrack on its Syria policy in the face of Russian threats and sanctions, while the United States stands as one of the prime beneficiaries of the crisis.
What should be the key question to ask for an accurate understanding of why Ankara downed a Russian Su-24 warplane in the Turkish-Syrian border region on Nov. 24? If we had tried to formulate the question on the day of the incident, most of us would have probably asked, “What interest does Ankara have in downing a Russian plane?” But now, two weeks after the incident, we have the chance to compare the two countries’ attitudes and actions in the crisis, and then the most accurate and pertinent question emerges: “What interest does Moscow have in making Turkey shoot down a Russian plane?”
Indeed, Turkey downed the plane but Russia was the playmaker in this crisis. The speed and scope of the sanctions Moscow slapped on Turkey immediately after the incident in the realms of tourism, foreign trade, investment and joint projects suggest that the set of moves could have been planned in advance for a potential Syria-related crisis. The deployment of S-400 air defense missiles at the Hmeymim air base in Syria only two days after the incident indicates that the deployment was pre-planned.
Another indication of pre-crisis preparation is the swift frontal attack by Russia’s propaganda machine on the issue of the Islamic State’s illicit oil trade with Turkey, directly targeting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his family. The Russian propaganda seems directed at the Western public, to further worsen Erdogan’s already unfavorable image and thus make it harder for NATO allies to back Turkey up. In short, the Russians have been trying to isolate Turkey in the crisis.
A similar review of Ankara’s actions offers no signs of significant pre-planning. In fact, Ankara has taken no steps of this kind. Its attitude since Nov. 24, when the Su-24 was downed, boils down to efforts to calm Russia's pushing a policy of planned escalation, and failing to do that, put on a brave face against the Russian sanctions. On Dec. 5, for instance, Erdogan sought to downplay Russia’s decision to significantly curb imports from Turkey, saying, “So what if you buy or not!” Similarly, he has repeated at every opportunity that Ankara will not apologize to Moscow.
