Meetings between Turkish, Russian military reveal that Moscow had been warned
Turkey and Russia both seem determined to obtain the dominant position in shaping Syria's future.
Much has been made of Turkey's recent downing of a Russian plane, but not a lot is being said about that event's possible implications for the power equation in Syria.
On Nov. 24, a Russian Su-24 engaged in an operation against opposition forces — which have been controlling the Bayirbucak area north of Latakia, Syria, for 3½ years — was shot down by an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile fired by a Turkish F-16.
A proper analysis requires an overview of the three-tiered power structure in Syria. The first two tiers are directly linked to the fight against the Islamic State (IS), and the third is the underlying factor that led to the downing of the Russian Su-24 by the Turkish F-16.
-
Ground combat tier: The most crucial parameter of the ground combat is the future of the "moderate" opposition. Are these opposition forces part of the solution or the problem? These moderates with varying degrees of ideological affiliations and loyalty will either become full-time terrorists, as Russia says they will, or freedom fighters, as Turkey claims. This will directly affect the future of Syria and the struggle against IS.
