The Nov. 1 parliamentary elections will have direct bearing on the democratization of Turkey, the course the country will adopt and how the spiral of violence that has swept the country since July 20 will evolve. But the primary issues about the elections are how to ensure security in the 22 predominantly Kurdish provinces in eastern and southeastern Turkey, and whether the election results will reflect the free will of voters.
The real contest in those provinces will be between the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and the Justice and Development Party (AKP). The HDP had major success in the June 7 elections but couldn’t become the key representative of Kurdish politics, under the shadow of the armed power of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the dominant AKP, which seems to be backed by the state security forces.
It is obvious that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s goal in the coming election is to restore the AKP as the single ruling party, which is the only way Erdogan will be able to achieve his fundamental goal of an executive presidency. Whether the HDP again succeeds in overcoming the 10% vote threshold will likely determine whether the AKP will be able to be the single ruling party again and whether the AKP will be able to have the 60% of parliament needed to pass the constitutional changes Erdogan wants.
The November election will also tell us whether the HDP can be the driving engine of the Turkish left. But the election, in addition to its political ramifications, has become a struggle for dignity for the Kurdish political movement.
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