Russia ramps up in Syria

US Secretary of State John Kerry warned Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Sept. 5 that a Russian military buildup in Syria “could further escalate the conflict” and even risk confrontation with US-led coalition forces.

Moscow’s ramping up in its support for the Syrian government is the latest iteration of a remarkably consistent approach to Syria since the beginnings of the uprisings and civil war in 2011. For Russia, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, or more accurately the Syrian government, is essential to defeat terrorist groups that directly threaten Russia.

As Lakhdar Brahimi, the former joint United Nations-League of Arab States special representative for Syria, told Al-Monitor last year, “I think the Russian analysis was right at the beginning, but everybody thought that it was an opinion and not an analysis. The Russians were saying that Syria is not Egypt and it is not Tunisia, and the president of Syria is not going to fall in a matter of two or three weeks. People thought that this was not an analysis, it was an expression of position: 'We are going to support this regime.’ … Maybe, maybe if people listened to them, and went to them, and said, listen you clearly know the situation in Syria better than anybody else. Let’s sit down and see how we can help Syria solve its problems. Perhaps things would have been different. But that did not happen.”