Now that President Barack Obama has gained the upper hand in the congressional battle, the Iran deal will come into effect at the end of September. This will be a very rare case in which the partnership between the Israeli government and the powerful pro-Israel lobby, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), will suffer a defeat in Congress.

In this battle, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not just making his position clear against the deal; for this, he did not need to recruit the organized Jewish community to support a well-orchestrated campaign in Congress. Netanyahu was actually hoping to win.

But the Netanyahu-AIPAC partnership miscalculated its odds of success, for a variety of reasons. Clearly, they did not foresee the loyalty of Democratic senators and representatives to their president, especially nearing an election year. Also, they misread Democratic constituency opinion, which largely backs Obama’s policies and is strongly opposed to a US military intervention. According to a poll conducted by the University of Maryland and published Sept. 1 in The Hill, 72% of Democrats favor the agreement. (Of the total US population, 55% favor a yes vote). They also misread Jewish public opinion on the issue. According to the great majority of polls published in this regard, a majority of Jews landed on the yes side. The community is now deeply divided, a possibility Netanyahu did not take into account.

A senior representative at the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity about the deep rift in the Jewish community, and even within Jewish organizations: “The great majority of American Jews voted for Barack Obama and traditionally vote for the Democrats. At the same time, most Jews stand fervently by Israel. Iran is perceived as anti-Semitic and untrustworthy. This leads to much confusion, both individually and within the community. The gut instinct that prevails among the majority of Jews was to give the diplomatic opportunity a chance. Most Jews are liberals at heart, even those who support ‘Israel, right or wrong.’”