It is said to be a fait accompli, with only the timing undecided. Will a third intifada erupt on the Temple Mount and spread like wildfire across the West Bank? Will it be Hebron that ignites the fire, the sparks of which are already visible? Stones, firebombs and stabbings are the telltale signs of the start of a new round of popular violence between Israelis and Palestinians, but are we really on the cusp of a third intifada?

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has recently taken to issuing public warnings that unless Israel cools the heated emotions, particularly at the Temple Mount, an intifada will undoubtedly flare up. He relayed these concerns during a Sept. 22 meeting with French President Francois Hollande as well as in a meeting Aug. 18 with Isaac Herzog, leader of the Knesset opposition. Apparently, Abbas also intends to express dire warnings during his Sept. 30 UN General Assembly speech, which, his associates assert, will be his strongest yet.

“This is only a political game by the president,” a senior Palestinian official familiar with the prevailing mood told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “Let’s face it. There’s no doubt that there’s great tension, frustration and despair, pretty much everything you need in order to have the people take to the streets. But only if Abbas wants it will an intifada that’s intense, violent and popular break out.”

The official explained that without a prominent body coaxing the street, there will be no intifada on the scale of the two previous ones, which began in 1987 and 2000. According to him, the Hamas movement, which is being suppressed by the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, is unable to rear its head. Moreover, given Hamas' dire situation in the Gaza Strip, it remains uncertain whether its leaders even want to stoke the fire at this time.