As Turkey's consumer confidence plummets, what does that mean for the AKP?

According to a Turkish proverb, “The calculation made at home goes awry at the market.” It basically means the decisions one makes and implements with available knowledge, experience and foresight may not produce the desired results in the face of changing realities on the ground.

The developments in Turkey since the June 7 elections, which saw the Justice and Development Party (AKP) lose its governing majority after 13 years in power, show that the calculation President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made “at home” was to take Turkey to snap elections as soon as possible in a bid to propel the AKP back to power as a single-party government. It seems, however, his calculation may go “awry at the market.”

Let’s first see what his “calculation at home” entails. Erdogan got his early election plan rolling immediately after the June 7 vote. So much so that on June 8 the front pages of several newspapers close to the president were already trumpeting the prospect of early polls. Soon, Erdogan himself made his intentions known. Only six days after the polls, he said fresh elections would be inevitable if a coalition government could not be formed. “I don’t call it an early election but a repetition of the election,” he said. On June 21, many days before he formally tasked AKP Chairman Ahmet Davutoglu with forming the government, he once again alluded to early elections, saying, “If politicians can’t resolve it, the people are the only authority who will.”

On July 9, Erdogan finally gave the mandate to Davutoglu, who had 45 days to form a government under the constitution. The coalition talks between the AKP and the Republican People’s Party dragged on for weeks before ending in failure as expected. Davutoglu returned the mandate on Aug. 18, five days before the 45-day deadline was to expire. Erdogan refused to give the mandate to someone else.