With developments in neighboring Syria getting out of hand and momentous developments in the offing following Iran’s decision to make its peace with the West, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu are learning the hard way that international politics is a complicated affair requiring realistic appraisals as to what is possible and what is not.

Turkey today is not the “leading country” Erdogan and Davutoglu once hoped to make it in the Middle East and the Islamic world at large. Rather, it is a country that is forced to react to adverse developments without a clearly defined master plan of what it is realistically trying to achieve.

What is clear, though, is that Ankara’s Islamist orientation under the Justice and Development Party (AKP), when it was still the pre-eminent force in Turkish politics, is no longer valid with regard to its foreign policy. The June 7 elections saw the AKP lose its parliamentary majority, which many argue is also due to its misguided Syria policy that has not only failed to topple the regime of Bashar al-Assad but has also landed serious problems on Turkey’s lap — most notably a runaway refugee crisis and the risk of Islamic terrorism — which it can’t cope with alone.

The suicide attack July 20 in the town of Suruc, near the Turkish border with Syria, that killed 32 mostly young people and which carries the hallmarks of the Islamic State has effectively put the last nail into the coffin of Erdogan and Davutoglu’s already failed plans for carving out a leadership role for Turkey in the Middle East predicated on Islamic leanings.