Newspapers are overflowing with scenarios that send Turkey into Syria after the expulsion of the Islamic State (IS) from Tell Abyad by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). A flurry of speculation about operational plans followed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s declaration that Turkey will never allow establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Syria. According to a report by government mouthpiece daily Yeni Safak, 18,000 Turkish soldiers are to enter Syria through the Karkamis and Oncupinar crossings and set up a buffer zone 28-33 kilometers (17-20 miles) deep and 110 kilometers (68 miles) long.
Yeni Safak’s veteran columnist Abdulkadir Selvi, reputed to be well-plugged-in to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), shared details of the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) operational planning: If the buffer zone is 5 kilometers (3 miles) deep, it will need two brigades, or four brigades if it is 10-15 kilometers (6 to 9 miles) deep. Soldiers will not line up in a single file along the 110-kilometer (68-mile)-long border. Company or battalion size units will be deployed on dominating land features. These units will have observation capacity as well as firepower. Howitzers with a 40-kilometer (25-mile) range will be deployed inside Syria and provide security for the buffer zone.
The National Security Council meeting June 29 ended with a communique that gave the impression of putting the brakes on an intervention rather than there being an imminent one. The communique said possible threats in Syria and extra security measures along the border were discussed and concerns were expressed over attempts to change the demographic structure of the region, which means Kurdish domination of the area.
According to the daily Milliyet, which reported behind the scenes of the council meeting, two red lines were drawn: If the Kurdish YPG moves to Jarablus, currently controlled by IS, or if regime forces launch operations that will provoke a refugee wave from north of Idlib to Turkey, then the TSK is authorized to respond without waiting for further orders.
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