Former Finance Minister Yair Lapid has been saying in recent private conversations that it is by no means far-fetched to predict that the fourth Netanyahu government will not last even a year and that elections will be pushed up to the winter of 2016.

On the face of it, this is, of course, wishful thinking on the part of someone whose party's electoral strength shrank from 19 to 12 Knesset seats in the last elections and is forced to constantly fight for a front-row seat on the crowded opposition benches. But the assessment by the Yesh Atid chairman of a fragile government was bolstered this past week by the battle over the future allocation of proceeds from the harvesting of Israel’s offshore natural gas resources.

The discovery a few years ago of natural gas fields near Israel's shores has presented the state with the need to balance public interests against those of the gas companies, regarding the distribution of the gas (local use versus export) and benefits. After long negotiations, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to present the outline of a compromise. Contrary to Netanyahu's expectations, he failed to secure the Cabinet's approval.

It started with an ambush by Economy Minister and Shas Chairman Aryeh Deri at the June 25 debate on the issue by the Foreign Affairs and Defense Cabinet. Approval of the gas regulation by the Cabinet meant designating the issue a matter of national security, thus enabling the government to bypass its anti-trust commissioner, who opposes the proposal.