Will the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) expand into the Middle East? Its July 9-10 summit in Ufa, in south-central Russia, suggests that this may be increasingly possible. Nevertheless, the process may take some time — and could face important challenges.

A week prior to the summit, Egypt submitted an application to the group, in which Iran is already an observer and Turkey is a “dialogue partner” — the level below observer status. At a news briefing in Ufa, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the group’s membership rules prevent Iran from joining as long as it is under United Nations Security Council sanctions, adding, “The Vienna talks that are about to be completed, paving the way to the lifting of the sanctions, are very important for this reason.” SCO members agreed to upgrade India and Pakistan, now observers, to full membership by next year’s summit in Uzbekistan; they will be the first members beyond the founders.

Established in 2001, the SCO became possible only after Russian-Chinese border agreements in 1991 and 1994 that resolved the disputes underlying the 1969 Soviet-Chinese border war. Originally intended to manage technical cross-border issues, the SCO increasingly took on a geopolitical role during the US and NATO war in Afghanistan. At its 2005 summit, the SCO’s members — Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — signed a declaration calling on “members of the anti-terrorist coalition [fighting in Afghanistan] to set a final timeline for their temporary use” of military bases in Central Asia — a delicate way to suggest that the United States and its allies should leave.

Since then, the SCO has further broadened its focus. At a June ministerial meeting in advance of the Ufa summit, the SCO issued a joint statement that referred to three specific issues: Afghanistan, the Iran talks and the Middle East. The language was mild — “we welcome the aspiration of Middle East and North African nations for restoring stability in their states, creating conditions for improving their lives and setting up broad political domestic dialogue” — but clearly staked out the SCO’s interest in the region.