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Will elections change Turkey’s foreign policy?

Many believe that if Erdogan is further empowered, Ankara’s foreign policy will remain turbulent.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, accompanied by his wife Emine Erdogan (L), greets his supporters as he arrives at the a ceremony to mark the 562nd anniversary of the conquest of the city by the Ottoman Turks, in Istanbul, Turkey, May 30, 2015. REUTERS/Murad Sezer  - RTR4Y59A
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accompanied by his wife Emine Erdogan (L), greets his supporters as he arrives at the a ceremony to mark the 562nd anniversary of the conquest of the city by the Ottoman Turks, in Istanbul, May 30, 2015. — REUTERS/Murad Sezer

Turkey faces what some say will be the most important elections in its recent history. What's at stake is nothing less than Turkey’s already troubled democratic system. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to use these elections to introduce an unencumbered presidential system that will make him the country’s sole leader who is only nominally answerable to parliament.

Given his blatantly authoritarian tendencies, many Turks are worried about the prospect that Erdogan may have his way if the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which he once headed and whose “spiritual leader” he remains, should win a major victory.

Many outside Turkey, particularly in the West, having observed Erdogan’s abrasive manner in dealing with international matters, and the overtly Islamist and anti-Western tone he employs, are concerned about the direction Turkey’s foreign policy will take in such an event.

Polls indicate that the AKP will fail to get the number of parliamentary seats to fashion a constitution on its own that meets Erdogan’s requirements. The likely outcome, according to many analysts, is that the AKP will win enough seats to form a government, but will come out of the elections weakened. Another possibility is that it will be forced into forming a coalition or a minority government.

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