Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is the early winner in Yemen. With its hated enemies Saudi Arabia and the Zaydi Houthi rebels engaged in what may well be a protracted war, AQAP is flourishing in eastern Yemen and under less pressure than at any time since its founding in 2009.

On April 2, AQAP militants attacked the prison in Mukalla, the capital of Hadramawt province, releasing as many as 300 prisoners. Many were experienced al-Qaeda operatives. The attackers also destroyed government installations and weakened the already fragile security situation in Hadramawt.

Hadramawt is the ancestral home of Osama bin Laden's father. The eastern wing of Yemen, primarily Sunni, has long been a fertile recruiting area for al-Qaeda. It has never been under firm government control from Sanaa and has always had weak security.

The Saudi-led Operation Decisive Storm has achieved complete air superiority and air control over the country. Saudi and Egyptian naval forces are blockading Yemen's main ports. The Houthis and their allies loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh are largely cut off from outside supplies from their ally Iran. The impoverished country faces a humanitarian disaster.