On March 12, 2002, two terrorists infiltrated Israeli territory from Lebanon by leaping over the border fence. They used a “trapeze ladder,” an ingenious device that enabled the combatants to sail over the border fence without touching it, thus preserving the element of surprise (when the fence is touched, a warning is sounded in the Israeli War Room, which immediately dispatches Israel Defense Forces (IDF) combat soldiers to the spot). The terrorists somehow managed to drag the trapeze ladder (which weighs between 150 to 200 kilograms [330 to 440 pounds]) to the fence, stabilize it, cross the fence, hide it in Israeli territory and station themselves on a hill overlooking a crossroads near Israeli Kibbutz Matzuva. There they opened fire on Israeli vehicles and civilians who happened to be in the area, killing six Israelis, including an IDF captain, and wounding additional Israelis before the terrorists were eliminated.

Exactly 13 years have elapsed since then. Israel attributed that terrorist attack to Hezbollah, even though the organization claimed it was not responsible (the Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility). Today, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah openly declares that in the next conflict with Israel, Hezbollah will conquer swathes of the Israeli Galilee. This warning, despite its exaggerated posturing, is addressed seriously on the Israeli side of the border. Hezbollah cannot overcome or conquer Israel, but if it uses several tools in tandem — the element of surprise, concentration of forces and meticulous effort and planning — it is capable of taking control of a small Israeli locality in the next clash, or at least a few houses at the edge of such a village or town. This would be for short intervals limited to a few minutes or a few hours maximum, until elimination of the Hezbollah force.

Such an incident would reverberate throughout the Middle East as a strategic event. The last time Israel lost population centers to its Arab adversary, even for a limited time period, was in the War of Independence in 1948. During the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Israel evacuated its localities in the Golan Heights on its own initiative. After a few days, it succeeded in retaking control of the entire Golan Heights, after which it invaded Syria. Should Hezbollah succeed in seizing control of an Israeli village in the Galilee, this would constitute a precedent and tremendous strategic achievement and morale boost for Nasrallah, even if it ended with the expulsion or elimination of the invaders.

High-level Israeli officers on the northern front are aware of this contingency. They say that it is impossible to secure every single spot at every given moment. The zone is long, winding and challenging. Hezbollah has significant commando capabilities and several units that are able to cross the border by surprise, without advance warning. Under such circumstances, since the IDF cannot be everywhere all the time, Hezbollah combatants are definitely capable of taking over a small village or neighborhood at the edge of a population center for a certain period of time, the officers say. So what can be done?