It would seem that Israel had never seen such a surprising, capricious and unpredictable election campaign as the current one. In the last three months, almost every week featured some kind of upheaval, or rule-changing political drama, or other event with a direct effect on the political system. There is hardly an Israeli political player whose current status and position is even close to the assessments regarding his status at the beginning of the campaign.

Even on March 12, five days before elections, it is still very hard to predict the results. Above and beyond all else, one thing is clear: The Israeli 2015 elections are, more than anything else, a referendum on the one and only issue: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Yes or no, that is the question.

Let’s start with Netanyahu: Although we may have forgotten, the truth is that it was the prime minister who called for early elections, even though he could have served another three years as premier. He did this because he was sick and tired of the situation and had misgivings about Yesh Atid leader (then Finance Minister) Yair Lapid. In addition, Netanyahu suffered a personal, resounding blow and setback in the preliminary reading of what is nicknamed “the Israel Hayom (newspaper) law,” a bill designed to limit the free distribution of the freebie newspaper Israel Hayom. This newspaper, identified with Netanyahu, is underwritten to the tune of tens of millions of shekels by Netanyahu’s associate, Jewish-American casino magnate Sheldon Adelson.

When Netanyahu opted for early elections in December 2014, he was in the consensus. Even his opponents knew that the elections would entail only minimal political adjustments and that Netanyahu’s chances of being defeated and losing the premiership were minuscule, if at all.