Ankara had been dreading this scenario. On Feb. 16, the Syrian regime army launched an offensive to besiege opposition-controlled areas of Aleppo, lifting the opposition's 18-month siege on two Shiite villages and severing the opposition's supply lines to Turkey. If Aleppo falls, the next front to intensify will be Turkey's border. Beirut daily Al-Akhbar reported the situation with the headline: “A blow to Ankara: Syrian army makes advances in Aleppo offensive.”

Following the offensive, many wondered what had happened to the train-and-equip program for the Syrian opposition. Tanju Bilgic, spokesman for Turkey’s Foreign Ministry, said Feb. 17 that the negotiations with the United States to train the Free Syrian Army (FSA) had concluded, and that an agreement on technical details would soon be signed and a plan implemented in March. US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki further said that an agreement on principles had been reached and would be implemented in March.

The train-and-equip program has been slow moving due to the United States' and Turkey's divergent priorities. While the United States insists that the fight against the Islamic State (IS) should be prioritized, Turkey still insists that first, Bashar al-Assad must go. Psaki admitted that the training program is focused on IS, but expects the opposition to also use their training and weapons against the regime. Does this mean that Ankara’s demand now has the upper hand? No signs indicate such a major change, just as there is little hope that the three-year training program will change much on the ground.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's obsession with changing the Syrian regime has badly crippled his relations with President Barack Obama. Nothing has been said to invalidate the remark of Michael Werz, a Turkey expert at the Center for American Progress, that "no one in the White House, the Department of State or the Pentagon is prepared to do Turkey any big favors these days."