DAMASCUS — The Syrian regime started a wide-scale battle on Feb. 8 that it dubbed "the battle for a settlement,” in the countryside of Daraa (80 kilometers, or 50 miles, south of Damascus), with heavy participation from Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Observers believe that it is the most important battle yet at the military and political levels. It comes a day after the opposition fighters launched “the breaking claws” battle in Daraa. The fighters targeted the regime forces' positions in the northern countryside of Daraa, in response to the massacres committed by these same forces in eastern Rif Dimashq on Jan. 23.
The military objectives of the battle aimed to extend the regime’s control over the towns located in a strategic geographic triangle linking the northern countryside of Daraa, the northeastern countryside of Quneitra and southwestern Rif Dimashq. It is an attempt to separate these cities from each other, to prevent the infiltration of the opposition fighters and to fully secure the capital, Damascus. The battle also aims to pave the way for the regime’s progress toward a stretch of hills leading to the strategic Tal al-Hara in western Daraa, and then to the center of Hauran, the city of Nawa, Sheikh Miskin and Quneitra.
This front is strategic for several reasons. It is the closest to Damascus, and the opposition factions operating there have close ties with Jordanian intelligence, a main party in the MOC Operations Center — Friends of Syria. They also rely on local tribes and the rural community in the area for support. Interestingly, the militant groups there are affiliated with the Free Syrian Army, and the presence of Jabhat al-Nusra is limited compared to its wide spread presence in the north.
Politically, the battle comes at the climax of the US-Iran talks, the Israeli elections and Staffan de Mistura’s visit to Damascus. Therefore, if Iran and Hezbollah succeeded in reaching the Israeli border, Iran would have a new trump card in hand to play against Western countries over the nuclear file.
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