Despite the sharp criticism he directed at the decision by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address the US Congress on March 3, Isaac Herzog, chairman of the Zionist Camp, has rebuffed all attempts to extract a commitment from him not to join a Likud-led government. Herzog keeps reiterating that he will be the one forming the next government, but in talks with Al-Monitor over the weekend, members of the Zionist Camp's campaign headquarters, speaking on condition of anonymity, conceded that there is virtually no chance that a majority 61 members of the 20th Knesset will recommend to the president that Herzog form the next government.

Let's say, however, that at the last minute, Herzog declares from every rooftop that he prefers the opposition benches to the leather-upholstered arm chairs around the Cabinet table. What will that mean in terms of the day after the March 17 election? If the past is any indicator, very little.

Prior to the 2001 election, Prime Minister Ehud Barak said, "We will not serve in an Aswan-Tehran government [a reference to the reported intention to bomb the Aswan Dam and Iran's nuclear facilities]. The radicalism of Mr. [Ariel] Sharon-[Avigdor] Liberman, as reflected in their statements, makes this government dangerous." After the election, Labor joined the Sharon government.

Prior to the 2003 election, Labor Chairman Amram Mitzna said, "Ariel Sharon is leading us toward a disaster." Less than two years later, in 2005, well after Mitzna lost the leadership to Shimon Peres and left the party, Peres led Labor directly into the Sharon government. His successor as chairman, Amir Peretz, pledged before the 2006 election, "I will not be in a coalition with Liberman," but he then joined the Ehud Olmert-Liberman government.