Saudis are currently speculating about the royal succession with the recent deterioration of the health of King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, who was born in 1924. Despite mechanisms put in place to ensure the smooth succession of Crown Prince Salman after Abdullah’s death and Deputy Crown Prince Muqrin after the death of Salman, Saudis remain spectators watching the unfolding of a royal drama played by several aging contenders to the throne. In monarchies, the succession is often an uneventful affair as one king dies and another is appointed. In Saudi Arabia this time, the situation is more complex.

Saudi worries over the succession may not be so related to the old age of the king or the crown prince but are in fact a function of the lack of a long-term political reform agenda or structure that guarantees their participation, albeit partial, in the policies of their own country to ensure its durability and stability. Furthermore, the prospect of domestic turmoil with wars waging to the north and south makes most Saudis apprehensive despite the fact that there are so far no signs that such turmoil is about to reach the kingdom.

The 90-year-old Abdullah was recently admitted to the hospital suffering from pneumonia and is said to be breathing through an air tube. Still, despite his age and health issues, he has managed to remain king the last four years, a time in which the Arab masses overthrew several aging presidents.

While Abullah may be pleased about his continuing tenure, such a feel-good factor may not be so readily available to his successor: Salman, who could be 80 years old when he becomes king, may not last long enough to make a big impact. As a new king, he may neither be willing nor capable of speeding the transformation of the Saudi state into a viable modern polity with real representative political institutions.