The deadline for an agreement on Iran's nuclear program, described by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (and quite a few experts) as a “bad agreement,” falls after the Israeli elections scheduled for March 17. There are growing signs that Iran will get what it wants. The most obvious sign of this is the cooperation between the United States and Iran against the Islamic State (IS) in the Iraqi arena. An additional indicator can be found in the talks between the Gulf states and Iran on establishing a new regional order.
At the same time, the obvious wedge between Netanyahu and President Barack Obama exposes Israel, not Iran, as the recalcitrant outsider. When Netanyahu arranged to appear before both houses of Congress on March 3, proclaiming his speech as designed to derail Obama’s efforts to achieve an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, the prime minister actually gave Iran additional incentive to sign an accord. Iran can now be assured that signing an agreement will deepen the rift between the White House and the official residence on Jerusalem’s Balfour Street as long as no new tenant occupies the house.
It is hard to overstate the significance of turning the leader of Shiite Islam from a bitter enemy into a partner having mutual interests with the West and with its leading Sunni Arab neighbors. This could actually obviate Iran’s ambition to achieve the status of a regional power by obtaining nuclear weapons capabilities. Legitimization of Iran as a nuclear threshold state by its major Arab Sunni rivals, opponents of the emerging deal contend, will render invalid Israel’s argument that such an agreement would destroy the regional balance of power.
According to some Israeli intelligence assessments, removing the Iranian nuclear issue from the international agenda following an agreement with the United States and other powers might pave the way for a shift in Washington’s attitude toward the crisis in Syria. They contend that Obama could bring Iran on board the effort to integrate Syrian President Bashar al-Assad into a resolution of the crisis. The next, and perhaps parallel step, is an expected international and pan-Arab effort for recognition of a Palestinian state based on the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which has the blessing of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.
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