The signs of economic recovery in the United States are growing stronger, with better-than-expected growth and employment data. The US recovery, however, is upsetting the balances of emerging economies, including Turkey.

Most recently, the US non-farm payrolls were announced on Oct 3. Employers added 248,000 jobs in September, beating the forecast of 215,000. The jobless rate fell to a six-year low of 5.9%. The signals of fast recovery in the United States have stoked concern in emerging-economy countries that the Federal Reserve could hike rates sooner than expected. These fears have had an immediate impact on foreign exchange rates. In Turkey, the dollar jumped from about 2.26 to 2.31 Turkish lira, its highest value since Jan. 31.

The Federal Reserve has been expected to hike rates in June 2015. But the strengthening US economy means that the hike could come earlier. The prospect of an early Fed move, coupled with unrest within and along Turkey’s borders, has made the Turkish lira one of the fastest depreciating currencies among emerging economies. The lira lost about 6% of its value in September alone.

In remarks to Al-Monitor, Fatih Ozatay, the former Turkish Central Bank deputy governor who now heads the Finance Institute at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey, offered the following analysis of the converse interaction between the US and emerging economies: “When the Fed starts to hike rates, this means that rates go up also in Turkey and similar countries such as Mexico, Brazil and South Africa. This results also in upward pressure on foreign exchange because higher interest rates in the United States mean less capital coming in. A major rate hike would lead to capital outflows from those countries. The more the US unemployment rate improves, the more the timing of the Fed’s rate hike is brought forward. The Fed doesn’t know when exactly it will raise the rates. It says the decision will depend on the unemployment data. If positive data continues to come in, the rate hike could be brought forward even to March. This won’t be a disaster, but when the US hikes rates, things get worse here.”