Not since the War of Independence, which broke out one day after Israel’s establishment was proclaimed in October 1947, has the sovereignty of the Jewish state been in such real peril. During that war, communities and territories frequently exchanged hands. Once the campaign stabilized and the picture became clearer, the Green Line was born. To date, this remains the only recognized international border between Israel and its Arab surroundings.
Since 1948 until today — over 66 years — none of Israel’s enemies posed a real threat to its territorial integrity. No Israeli community has ever been conquered nor have military raids into the country been carried out. The only exception occurred during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when the Egyptian and Syrian armies mounted a surprise invasion. However, the areas they seized had been conquered by Israel during the 1967 Six-Day War and were beyond the Green Line.
Israel’s defense doctrine is predicated on one patently clear and solid principle: Warfare should be shifted into the enemy’s territory as quickly as possible. This principle stems from reality’s constraints: Israel is a tiny state, whose width in some areas does not exceed 10 miles. As a result, it doesn’t have the luxury of conducting campaigns in its own territory. This principle has been upheld throughout the state’s existence. Israel’s wars have always been conducted in the enemy’s territory.
When a senior officer from the Northern Command of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) briefed reporters on Sept. 14, he dropped a journalistic bombshell. During the next round of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, the officer said, it is possible that Hezbollah will take over an Israeli community or carry out a land grab for a certain period of time. Intimations to this effect had been previously heard here and there (including in my article for Al-Monitor from August 2013). Yet, when this topic starts dominating the headlines in Israel, it constitutes a watershed. The IDF is well aware of the fact that Hezbollah may have changed its warfare doctrine and that it has accumulated more self-confidence, knowledge and fighting experience. The organization is now able to carry out an armed and violent raid into Israel, relying on a force consisting of a “few dozen to several hundred combatants,” as the officer put it.
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