On Dec. 2, 1998, less than two years before the eruption of the second intifada, two Israelis were trapped by a raging Palestinian mob at the Ayosh intersection near the West Bank town of Ramallah. The two Israelis, traveling in a private car from Beit El settlement to Jerusalem, were Yehuda Oliva and soldier Assaf Miara, who hitched a ride with him.

The demonstrators, most of whom were Birzeit University students, hurled stones at the moving car from a distance of only a few meters. Oliva managed to escape but Miara remained trapped in his seat while the car continued its slow progress until it hit a wall and came to a halt. The demonstrators smashed the car windows and forcefully beat the soldier. Luckily, a restaurant owner from Ramallah protected Miara with his body and succeeded in spiriting him away, thus saving him from certain death.

The lynching attempt, which changed Miara’s life, served then as a milestone, marking the change of atmosphere in the occupied territories to Israel’s security heads — a change that later on led to the eruption of the second intifada. The catalysts for the eruption was the failure of the Camp David talks, and late Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s ascent to the Temple Mount.

I am not very enthusiastic about warning of the possibility that a "third intifada" may erupt now. The two previous intifadas succeeded in taking the Israeli and local Palestinian leaderships by surprise, with regard to the timing as well as force involved. And this was despite the early signs that were evident in the field.