Has Hezbollah adopted a strategy of constructive ambiguity toward the presidential elections in Lebanon? Resorting to general and vague expressions that can be interpreted in multiple ways would allow it to maintain its distance from certain positions when necessary. Such an approach would also free it from obligations that could be imposed by these positions, giving it more room to maneuver.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah announced that his party has a preferred candidate for the presidency, but he did not reveal his name. Meanwhile, members of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc and its allies cast blank ballots during the first session held to elect a president, on April 23. There were two candidates: Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces Party and the candidate of the March 14 coalition, and Henry Helou, candidate for the Democratic Gathering bloc, led by member of parliament (MP) Walid Jumblatt. Since both men failed to obtain the two-third majority (86 votes) needed to win, a second session had to be held. This required a quorum of two-thirds and a candidate receiving the support of half of all parliamentarians plus one, that is, 65 votes, to win.
Hezbollah's deputies and their allies in the Change and Reform bloc, headed by Michel Aoun, boycotted the second session, held on April 30, so the quorum of 86 parliamentarians was not achieved. The same scenario was repeated in the third session, on May 7, and the same is likely to occur in the next round. If so, it would mean that on May 25, the constitutional deadline for electing a president, the presidency will become vacant, unless the March 8 and March 14 coalitions can come to an agreement on a candidate acceptable to both of them.
A source close to Hezbollah who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity rejected allegations made by March 14 politicians and journalists that Aoun was not Hezbollah's preferred candidate. If he were, they argued, the party would have announced it and voted for him. The source said the March 8 coalition was committed to supporting Aoun's candidacy if Aoun himself were intent on running. He said Aoun was opposed to announcing his candidacy at the time, prior to an agreement between March 8 and the Future Movement that would ensure his victory in the race.
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