After years of economic stagnation and political infighting, optimism in Kuwait is on the rise. Local economists expect an uptick in government spending — tied to a partial resolution of the political turmoil — and a pickup in the pace of mega-development project implementation. But behind the spending spree, royal infighting, fears about longer term budget constraints and an upcoming succession might derail Kuwait’s turnaround before it even gets started.

“The Kuwaiti economy, in our view, will witness a moderate acceleration in non-oil growth toward 4-4.5% in 2014 and 2015 … driven largely by a faster pace of project implementation, which is already taking place,” Nemr Kanafani, senior economist with National Bank of Kuwait, told Al-Monitor.

The much touted 37 billion dinar (approximately $130 billion) five-year Kuwait Development Plan (2010-2015), approved by parliament in 2010, has faced numerous delays and disruptions. Many of the projects, particularly non-oil related ones — including the 25 billion dinar ($88.7 billion) Silk City development, 7 billion dinar ($24.8 billion) metro system and 7 billion dinar ($24.8 billion) in new hospital projects — have never moved far beyond the drawing board. 

In fact, despite 15 consecutive years of multibillion-dollar budget surpluses, Kuwait’s aging infrastructure, outdated educational system, overburdened health system, widespread corruption and general economic malaise are legend. The oil-rich Gulf Arab state is often unfavorably compared with its Gulf counterparts, the United Arab Emirates or Qatar. Even locals point to the fast-paced development in neighboring Dubai and wonder why Kuwait continues to lag behind.