ALEPPO, Syria — Predictably, as soon as the battle for the strategic Qalamoun area in the mountainous regions between Syria and Lebanon drew to a close — with the regime gaining the upper hand — fresh fronts opened in this seemingly endless civil war. Their location, however, was quite unexpected. Most Syria observers and analysts expected to see the next big battle in southern Daraa province, the birthplace of the Syrian uprising and a stronghold of mainstream rebels backed by the West and regional powers. Crucially, this area is devoid of the radical Islamist groups that have dominated other parts of the war-torn country.

The shock came when a new front opened in Kassab in rural Latakia province, a stronghold of the Syrian regime largely composed of Alawites. Kassab itself was a predominantly Armenian resort town, and fear spread that the extremist Islamist factions that stormed the town might perpetrate genocide against the inhabitants. This fear was not entirely unfounded, as such violence would have been a repeat of the war crimes perpetrated the last time rebels launched an offensive into rural Latakia in August 2013, according to Human Rights Watch.

Importantly, the Syrian regime accuses Turkey of providing the logistical and military support the rebels need to take over the area. This fresh offensive raises already strained sectarian tensions in the country to a dangerous breaking point, as the city of Latakia has become home to hundreds of thousands of displaced Sunnis, especially from Aleppo, joining its native inhabitants of mixed Sunnis, Alawites and Christians. The danger is being taken seriously by both the regime, which has sent reinforcements of its best units to the area, and members of the opposition, with Michel Kilo condemning the Kassab offensive and ringing alarm bells.

Syrian National Coalition head Ahmad Jarba visited the front lines to maintain the appearance of relevance and to reiterate that the goal of the rebels was not ethnic cleansing, but rather fighting the regime. Such words would undoubtedly sound hollow to local residents, who heard much the same when Gen. Salim Idriss of the Free Syrian Army visited the Latakia front lines last August with the same message. Soon after, heinous massacres were committed against the Alawite community.