Next Lebanese president depends on Tehran, Riyadh

Despite the passage of nearly two weeks since the March 25 start of the constitutional period for electing a new Lebanese president, the situation in Beirut appears unmoved on the issue. There has been no indication of when parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will hold the first electoral session to put out feelers and explore attitudes. Furthermore, there are well-known, major difficulties standing in the way of assembling the constitutionally required quorum, that is, two-thirds of the number of deputies, or 86 deputies out of the 128.

It is clear that the “presidential deal,” as they call it in Lebanon, is dependent on external cues that are either not yet clear or have not yet reached the Lebanese capital. Given the severe split between the March 14 and March 8 alliances, the two main parties, both sides know that they cannot alone secure a quorum or a victory (requiring 86 votes) for their candidate on the first ballot or in subsequent balloting (requiring a simple majority, or 65 votes).

The electoral distribution in parliament is harshly divided. It appears that former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s team has 57 votes. His opponents in the March 8 alliance with Gen. Michel Aoun have the same number. Meanwhile, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has eight deputies, and six deputies are independent. It is thus clear that a quorum can only be reached if both major teams agree to attend.

The Lebanese know that such an agreement will only happen with the consent of foreigners. As a result, attention in Beirut has turned in the past few weeks to regional developments, and it will remain there in the coming weeks. It is clear that “foreign parties” essentially means a Saudi-Iranian agreement on holding an inaugural electoral session and presenting a presidential candidate acceptable to both Riyadh and Tehran. The candidate must also not be found objectionable by Europe, Russia and especially the United States.