Despite sending strong signals that he intends to run for the Turkish presidency in August, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has again asserted that he remains undecided. He gathered his party’s lawmakers on April 16 to discuss the matter and announced, “I have not made my decision yet.” He added, “And I don’t approve of announcing names [for the presidential bid] at this point. There will be no chaos in the party if I decide to run or choose to stay [as the prime minister]. The most important thing is the institutional structure of our party.”

Erdogan’s stated position, however, defies reality simply because of his control-oriented, and some would say self-centered, leadership that dominates all aspects of his party and members’ actions. The party’s success is explained more by Erdogan’s leadership than its institutional structure. In fact, many party insiders tie the fate of the resolution of the Kurdish issue to the prime minister’s political future. They consider the Kurdish vote to be in Erdogan’s pocket if he decides to run in Turkey’s first direct election of its president.

Al-Monitor talked to some of the key Kurdish figures selected by Erdogan’s government to play a role in resolving the Kurdish issue. Their voices could reflect the way in which the government decides to approach this controversial issue. 

“There is no doubt that Erdogan will receive Kurdish support if he runs for the presidency,” said Sahismail Bedirhanoglu, head of a business association in the predominantly Kurdish city of Diyarbakir and the man who put together a contact group aimed at fostering dialogue on Kurdish issues with the consent of the government. “The thing is, we concluded one election [on March 30] and stepped into the sphere of the presidential election. And this ongoing election season makes it more difficult for the government to take some crucial and much-needed steps to assure the advancement of this process. That raises the risk of this issue sliding once again into violence.”