CAIRO — The violence in Egypt has taken a marked geographical shift in recent months from the remote areas of the Sinai Peninsula and the Suez Canal to the metropolises of Cairo and the Nile Delta. Analysts have two divergent opinions to explain this shift. Some analysts believe that the move by armed extremists toward the capital did not happen voluntarily and was not a planned strategy, but rather a shift enforced on these groups due to security measures and army operations in the Sinai Peninsula. The second opinion argues that what happened was a premeditated step taken by armed groups, to extend the war against the post-Muslim Brotherhood regime.

Brig. Gen. Khaled Akashe, a security expert who was formerly in charge of the security issue in the northern Sinai, explained to Al-Monitor that the shift in terrorist operations from distant locations to the heart of the country was one aspect of the escalation against the state. According to him, at first these groups were betting on isolating and controlling the Sinai Peninsula to establish an Islamic emirate. The targeting of locations such as Ismailia, Suez and Port Said was aimed at the most important navigation passage in the world: the Suez Canal. This was done to influence international public opinion, as foreign states would fear for their own interests in the canal. In addition, these three provinces have the largest gathering of Egypt’s army units.

Akashe described the shift toward the capital as a move intended at striking the “lifeblood” of the country. Attacks against Cairo and the cities of the Delta, which are densely populated, would result in a high number of casualties, as happened during the bombing of the security directorate in Mansoura on Sept. 24, 2013, and the bombing of police and army checkpoints in Sharqiya and Qalyubiya provinces on Dec. 29, 2013, and March 15 of this year. The attacks on these provinces, in addition to those in Cairo, attract both domestic and international headlines.

“The shift of terrorist operations toward the capital represents a strategy adopted by these groups to achieve victory on all fronts, whether in remote locations or in the heart of the capital. They see Cairo and the Delta cities as the hottest battlefield, where there is a group of Muslim Brotherhood facilitators providing protection and hiding places [for fugitive members]. The dense population provides freedom to easily move around explosives and hide between human masses,” Akashe added.