On the morning of March 3, fallout from the Crimea crisis hit the European energy market. Over fears of a gas supply disruption similar to the 2006 and 2009 Russia-Ukraine gas crises, the benchmark oil price rose by 2%, gas futures climbed by 10% and Russian gas giant Gazprom's shares fell by 13%. However, not all consumers of Russian gas share the same level of risk. While EU members have developed some measures to reduce their energy security vulnerability, Turkey’s vulnerabilities have not changed since the 2009 crisis.

Russia’s gas-export monopoly, OAO Gazprom, announced March 1 that it may end the December 2013 agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s overthrown President Viktor Yanukovich to supply Ukraine gas at a cheaper rate. This sounded new alarms in the European energy market over the gas-disruption risk via pipelines crossing Ukraine, as happened in 2006 and 2009. Despite the panic, EU member countries are much less vulnerable to anything similar to what happened in 2009. The financial crisis has reduced energy consumption rates in Europe, while supply measures (such as an increase in storage capacity, the diversification of supply routes and the expansion of gasification terminals) have made EU-member countries less vulnerable. Conversely, Turkey, with an annual energy-demand growth rate of around 4.5% and no new energy security measures, remains calm even on the eve of a major Eurasian gas crisis.

One quarter of all energy consumed in the EU is gas, and 58% of this gas is imported. Of this, 42% comes from Russia, and around 80% of EU gas imports from Russia pass through Ukraine. Among the eight new Eastern European member states, dependence on Russian imports averages 77%. Turkey uses natural gas to produce 32% of its electricity, and the country imports some 46.6 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas from four gas pipelines. Two of these pipelines — West Gas (with a 16 bcm capacity) and Blue Stream (14 bcm) — transfer the Russian gas that constitutes the largest share of Turkey's gas supply at 58%.

In 2006 and 2009, Russia used its gas monopoly as a political weapon in its dispute with Ukraine, cutting gas flows to the European Union via Ukraine. The Western Balkan gas routes were completely disrupted. Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia and Turkey’s gas supplies were all severely damaged. Very low levels of gas flow were reported from Poland and the eastern Romanian entry points. Eastern Hungary received only 20% of its normal gas supply, which also affected supplies to Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. And on Jan. 7-20, no gas came to Europe and Turkey from Russia.