Turkey boxed in by Russian moves in Crimea
The Ukraine crisis will likely harden Russia’s support for Syria, further complicating Turkey’s regional policies.
The dangerous standoff in Ukraine between Russia and the West is reminding Turks once again of their volatile neighborhood, where unexpected developments can alter the geostrategic equation unexpectedly, leaving Turkey facing difficult choices and decisions overnight. These events are also showing just how interconnected developments in this part of the world are when superpower rivalry is concerned.
Rising tensions between the United States and Russia over Ukraine will most likely make the Syrian crisis more intractable and increase Turkey’s Syrian headache while Moscow positions itself more firmly behind Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, keeping in mind its naval base in Tartus and military ties with the Baathist regime.
The developing situation in the Crimean peninsula also has potential domestic ramifications for Turkey due to the close ties of kinship between Turks and Crimean Tatars. This issue can add fuel to an already tense political environment in Turkey, where the government is fighting serious corruption charges.
The opposition is likely to use the situation in Crimea to hit at the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) by alleging passivity by the government as the tide turns against the Tatars, many of whom have relatives in Turkey.
