Turks will head to the polls on March 30 to elect their local governments. It will be the first time they vote since the Gezi Park protests of last year and the graft probe that surfaced more than four months ago, zooming in on the government’s wrongdoing. 

While Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan denies any responsibility for these two serious developments that cost people blood and money, he certainly has turned this election into a confidence vote for his government. The tension on the streets is high, and people seriously worry about potential violence erupting on election day. Ankara, the capital of the country, seems to be carrying a high risk in that respect. 

When Erdogan was first elected into office as the mayor of Istanbul two decades ago, I. Melih Gokcek took over the Ankara metropolitan city municipality. They were both members of the Islamist-based Welfare Party. One became the prime minister and the other is running for his fifth term.

Whatever the results on Sunday evening, one thing is clear: The government will remain in place until the next general election scheduled for summer 2015, and it is no longer possible to talk about a stable and manageable country with this political atmosphere. On top of this, if Mansur Yavas, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate for Ankara mayor’s office wins, it is highly unlikely that it will be a peaceful handover of power from Gokcek. Put simply, election night could very well be the beginning of a new sort of escalation in Turkey.