Will Russia’s occupation of Crimea produce a fundamental break between Moscow and Western capitals? This is the central strategic question emerging as Russia’s troops consolidate their positions and Western leaders scramble to develop their responses. The answer is not yet apparent, though it could have important implications for US policy in Europe and around the world — particularly in the Middle East.

After a flurry of empty bombast — notwithstanding their rhetoric, neither the United States nor any major European nation has yet imposed the “costs” or “consequences” they have announced — most Western governments now appear to be looking for a negotiated solution, while reserving the prospect of economic sanctions for the future. The United States is leaning further forward, but Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel appears uninterested in taking this approach toward a top trading partner. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has stated explicitly that his government has not yet reached the point of reconsidering the sale of two Mistral helicopter carriers to Russia’s navy.

On the Russian side, President Vladimir Putin has said that he does not see Crimea becoming part of Russia, though he insists that Crimea’s residents have a right of self-determination like that “granted to the Albanians in Kosovo” and that Moscow will not “provoke any such decision.” He said that he told ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych that he “has no political future” but argued that while the Supreme Rada (Ukraine’s parliament) and the government ministers it has appointed are “partially legitimate,” acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov is not legitimate due to procedural violations in Yanukovych’s removal. Still, Putin said, the speaker of Russia’s State Duma has been in contact with Turchynov in his capacity as speaker of the Rada.

In this environment, it is possible for Western governments and Russia to edge toward negotiations and an eventual settlement. Moscow’s public position does not require Yanukovych to return to office or Crimea to become an independent country — outcomes that neither Washington, European capitals, nor Kiev could readily accept. While talks like these have a tendency to proceed slowly, the United States and Europe may seek to accelerate the process to head off a referendum that Crimea’s new government has set for March 30 or to ensure the presence of international monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) or some other entity. However, if there is no deal and the vote takes place, negotiations could become much more difficult.