Avoiding the 'disaster scenario' in Lebanon
Lebanon at a crossroad: in the best-case scenario Lebanon would see a new president who forms a new government, while in a worst-case scenario no president is elected and the government does not enjoy parliament's confidence.
Political crises are measured by several criteria, one of which is time. It is rare for a political crisis to be measured by the number of days it lasts, but this is what's happening in Lebanon today.
If we want to know the seriousness of the government crisis and if we are to predict where Lebanon will be in a few weeks, months or even years, and also if we want to predict the prospects for regime change in the next phase, then we have to consider how many days Tammam Salam’s government — which was formed on Feb. 15 — may last.
According to the political and constitutional practice, there are three possibilities for how long the government may last.
1. The government's rule will be 30 days, until it resigns on March 17. This possibility is a problem.
