The actions of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) during the last three months indicate, without any doubt, that it is not preoccupied with the battles in Anbar province as much as it is concerned with expanding the scope of its influence to other territories.

Data supporting this conclusion on the Iraqi map of events is evidenced by ISIS stepping up its presence around Baghdad over the last few months. This began with its takeover of the town of Sulaiman Beik (in the north) to its attempted takeover of the towns of Azim and Saadieh in Diyala province, when it headed south toward the Nahrawan region, all the way to Babil and the towns of Jurf al-Sakhr and Museib, with the circle completing itself in areas west of Baghdad such as Radwaniyeh, Abu Ghraib and down to Fallujah. The latter is connected to the arc through cities north of Baghdad such as Tarmia, Dlouiyeh, Samarra and toward the Hamrin mountains on the outskirts of which lies the town of Sulaiman Beik.

This wide circle of ISIS militants around Baghdad as well as their undisputed presence in Mosul indicates that the organization is not depleting its forces in the fight for Fallujah, but, on the contrary, is trying to produce many new “Fallujahs” along this arc that encircles Baghdad.

In this regard, Iraqi security sources seem aware of al-Qaeda’s movements, and have told Al-Monitor that security and military formations are positioned along a concentric arc surrounding the capital.