What had been likely — and something Al-Monitor had referenced multiple times — finally happened. The town of Yabrud fell into the hands of the Syrian regime army, and with its fall a large number of militants from the factions fighting President Bashar al-Assad fled into adjacent Lebanese territory to the west. Most of them went to the Lebanese town of Arsal. All eyes have turned toward this region in light of a question many were asking: When will the great battle break out there? And what will be its price militarily and, especially, politically?

Based on the on-the-ground details, it became known on Saturday night/Sunday morning (March 15-16) that the Syrian army had tightened its control over the town of Yabrud, putting an end to the last armed opposition presence in the Qalamoun region. The latter is a large region that stretches from northern Damascus to the west of the city. This also secured the route linking the Syrian capital to the northwest, passing through Homs and reaching up to the Syrian coast. Analyses and predictions quickly emerged regarding the consequences of this battle on the situation in Syria politically and militarily, and particularly in terms of its impact on the fate of Syria and the regime. Yet, in contrast, the Lebanese are concerned with the expected consequences of this battle on their internal arena, from the Bekaa Valley, which is adjacent to Syria, stretching to the Lebanese capital, Beirut.

As many media outlets have reported, the fall of the last rebel stronghold in the Qalamoun region has led to hundreds — and some say thousands — of militants fleeing to the adjacent Lebanese region of Arsal. This will be confirmed in the coming hours and it's possible that the number will rise, especially if the Syrian army continues to move toward the border with Lebanon to gain control of the last small villages between Yabrud and the border — such as Ras al-Maara, Al-Musharafa and Falita. These are the places that are likely to have turned into havens for the last militants escaping from Yabrud. If the army does reach the border, then the rest of the militants could cross over into Lebanon, making the estimates in the thousands very logical.

However, the most important aspect of this map is that these militants are entering the Lebanese Arsal region. Arsal is a town that — for more than two years — has been in the line of fire and a point of worry. This came as a result of the events in Syria on the one hand, and of the overlapping borders between Lebanon and Syria and the absence of any security or military control in this rugged and barren mountainous region, on the other. However, the most important reason for the tension in the area is that Arsal — as a Sunni majority town — did not hide its support for Assad's opponents. Moreover, Arsal is located between two Shiite regions — Baalbek to the south and Hermel to the north — the majority of whose residents are Shiites who support Assad.