In a somewhat surprising turn of events in Cairo, Hamdeen Sabahi, head of the Popular Current (PC), announced on Feb. 9 his bid to run for the presidency. At a press conference that was visibly on the more spontaneous side in terms of organization and appearance, the former presidential candidate's announcement seemed to surprise even many of his enthusiastic supporters in the crowd, who cheered loudly. Sabahi’s choice of words, in which he stated that this was his "personal decision" as a "citizen, and that he wasn’t trying to bypass his 'partners in the decision'" (likely a reference to other PC leadership), appeared to reaffirm reports of a split inside the PC over whether or not the former third-place winner in the previous elections should run this time against Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. The army chief’s candidacy may not have been officially announced yet but remains pretty much a foregone conclusion. The PC has still to issue a formal statement on the matter, but an informed source told Al-Monitor that the PC is likely to now just fall in line. 

In an ensuing and interesting turn of events, a visibly acrimonious split has begun to take shape within the Tamarod movement. Mahmoud Badr, one of the main three frontmen and founders of the movement, recently stated that Tamarod had officially convened and decided to fully support Sisi, whereas Hassan Shahine and Mohammed Abdel-Aziz have their own bloc that immediately endorsed Sabahi following his announcement. A war of words involving the factions as well as the PC ensued, coupled with a split between the movement's website and Facebook pages, in addition to further internal frictions and splits and a decision to freeze the memberships of Shahine and Abdel-Aziz, are all forcing a general assembly of the movement to convene on Feb. 10 to finalize the endorsement decision. 

Alternatively, this afternoon, Abdel-Mon’eim Abul-Fotouh, the head of the Strong Egypt Party and the fourth-place finisher in the previous elections, announced that he would not run in the coming elections. Abul-Fotouh said participation would be tantamount to “deceiving the people,” and that the democratic course that was hoped for following the uprising of June 30, 2013, has been derailed. He condemned the current state of affairs in Egypt, citing thousands of “activists” and 83 journalists in prison, control over media and blasting the current administration for spreading a “republic of fear.” 

Abul-Fotouh’s decision not to run comes, on the other hand, as very good news for Sabahi, who right now finds himself the only real alternative candidate to Sisi. Sami Anan, the former army deputy chief, who remains in the race, is widely seen as having virtually no chance, with most of his expected voter base likely to prefer the younger and more popular Sisi. The Salafi Nour Party, the second largest party in parliament after the Muslim Brotherhood, has also said it will neither nominate nor endorse an Islamist candidate for the coming 10 years. That leaves, thus far, virtually no one else in the race other than Sisi and Sabahi.