The Geneva II conference to be held next week may be the most intriguing event in diplomacy since the Cold War. On the one hand, this is an example of the cooperation of major countries that want to resolve a regional conflict, each for its own reason. On the other hand, this is a classic "great game," when all participants are afraid to miscalculate and miss out on the opportunities that will arise. All this is happening, yet the result is completely unpredictable. Even the process itself is unpredictable — a few days before the conference is set to begin, it is still unclear who will participate.

It's clear that the near simultaneous arrival to Moscow of the foreign ministers of Iran and Syria has attracted great attention, especially because these negotiations are surrounded by speculation about an alleged impending major deal between Russia and Iran.

The two processes — settling the conflict in Syria and working to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue — have almost merged. The Syrian conflict has moved Russia and Iran much closer together. Before the conflict, Iran believed that Russia certainly did not want to follow in the wake of Western policy — even strongly opposing it — but that it would not go all the way, retreating at the decisive moment so as not to quarrel with the United States. Moscow's uncompromising and consistent position on the Syrian issue for the past three years has become a pleasant surprise for Tehran.

Moscow's and Tehran's adherence to the principle that a change of government in Damascus is impermissible is due to various reasons. For Iran, it is an issue of regional balance of power and its own security, and for Russia it is an issue of upholding certain principles of international order and rejection of US pressure. However, the concurrence of goals is quite solid.