Egypt’s referendum on the new constitution was approved by a staggering 98.1% of the voters. US Secretary of State John Kerry said in a statement: “It’s not one vote that determines a democracy, it's all the steps that follow.” He pointed to challenges and criticism outlined in the preliminary assessments of Democracy International and The Carter Center.
Around 20 million Egyptians voted in favor of the constitution, double the number of those casting the very same vote but for a different, more conservative constitution barely a year ago. More importantly, if this referendum is considered a legitimacy test for the post-Brotherhood era and a vote of confidence for the new military-sponsored road map, where are the 10 million voters who approved Mohammed Morsi’s constitution a year ago and supported the Muslim Brotherhood rule? Did they boycott the 2014 referendum?
For a start, the 63% who voted in favor of the Brotherhood’s constitution in 2012 were not necessarily hard-core Brotherhood supporters. As explained in this Al-Monitor article, the pro-stability bloc is quite large and tends to support a sitting government — motivated by a desire for things to move forward, hoping that a “yes” vote will improve the economy and the belief that the government is unlikely to put forward a seriously flawed document. Some analysts believe that there must be a very small overlap between the voters who participated in last year’s referendum and those who did last week. I believe otherwise. Participation in elections is a habit. Most people who participate are more likely to always do so, while those who do not cast their vote are less likely to vote in the future unless a major change takes place in the political environment. If the pro-stability bloc said “yes” to Morsi’s referendum without much enthusiasm in December 2012, as demonstrated by the relatively smaller turnout rates (overall turnout was 32% in 2012 compared to 39% last week), the same bloc was twice as enthusiastic this year. Because when it comes to stability, for most Egyptians the army scores higher than any single political party, movement or coalition.
On the other hand, the overwhelming majority of the 36% who voted against Morsi’s constitution most likely supported the new constitution to make sure the Brotherhood does not score a political victory, regardless of what they think of the new constitution itself. By gaining support from both those who backed and opposed the 2012 referendum, the new constitution was approved nearly unanimously. Thus, except for the Brotherhood’s supporters and a faction of the revolutionary bloc that decided to boycott or vote against in protest of what they see as a potential return to the police state and resurrection of the Hosni Mubarak regime and its figures, most voters supported the new constitution.
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