Egyptians go to the polls today to determine the country’s future in the most decisive referendum Egypt has ever witnessed. Although the vote is strictly on the new constitution, or rather on amendments drafted by a 50-member committee, the results will be far reaching.

The biggest stumbling block is the pro-stability camp, which usually supports any sitting government and has grown very tired of the prolonged political volatility over the past three years. This bloc mostly supported deposed President Mohammed Morsi’s constitution in December 2012, with more than 63% of the 17 million voters (a 33% turnout), and ratified the constitution put forward by the Muslim Brotherhood. This is a significant drop from 77% of those who supported amendments proposed by a committee appointed by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in March 2011, when 18.5 million voters participated, or 41% of the then-45 million registered voters. This bloc clearly trusts the army more than any political rivals and will vote for the new constitution. 

Most liberals, socialists, Nasserists, nationalists and social democrats will also vote for the constitution for different reasons. Although these blocs are wary of the military’s expanding role in politics and wish to see a democratic transformation leading to freely elected governmental and civilian rule, they fear the Muslim Brotherhood more for the impact Islamist rule can have on Egypt’s identity, culture and personal freedoms. They may have some reservations about certain articles of the constitution but will most likely support the new draft, fearing that votes against it will be considered a political win for the Muslim Brotherhood, giving legitimacy to Morsi and possibly leading to the return of the Brotherhood and an end to Egypt as they know it.

There is another important bloc that is poorly researched, hence hardly understood and possibly unique to developing countries: swing voters who are easily mobilized or influenced. Their vote may depend on small monetary incentives, charitable favors or even distribution of food aid. Perhaps this is one reason why the government made a major gamble on freezing the assets of over 1,000 charities affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. The assets of more than 700 wealthy members of the organization were also frozen two weeks before the scheduled referendum, possibly to limit the Brotherhood's ability to buy votes and mobilize mass voting in poorer areas. The referendum outcome will tell how successful that bet was.