All indications point to Lebanon having become part of the Middle Eastern regional conflict, in its most abhorrent sense: a Sunni-Shiite war.

The issue is no longer whether shrapnel from that conflict is now pockmarking Lebanon’s interior, or whether the war raging in Syria has reached it. The great fear currently is whether Lebanon will become a main front — a priority, even — in this conflict that erupted in Syria following popular protests and soon became a military conflict in which all countries of the region are now directly or indirectly involved. One need not be a military expert to realize that the Lebanese scene, with its historical baggage and idiosyncrasies, is particularly prone to this type of conflict. The small nation is Hezbollah’s primary stronghold and base of operations — which might prove to be the party’s Achilles’ heel.

The predominantly Shiite areas that form Hezbollah’s popular and power base are heavily populated and teeming with activity, having never before been victimized by the type of terrorism that has recently ravaged them. It is true that they have been perennial targets of Israeli air strikes, such as those that occurred in the 1996 and 2006 wars. These strikes destroyed large parts of their neighborhoods, villages and infrastructure, displacing and killing untold numbers of their inhabitants. Yet, it also is true that these two wars, irrespective of their barbarity and horridness, were conventional strikes by Israel and resisted by Hezbollah through guerilla tactics that drained the enemy’s will to fight. In both cases, Hezbollah claimed victory simply because it had not been crushed, and in the process exploited worldwide Arab and Muslim support. The latter stood against Israel and with Hezbollah’s military resistance doctrine.

But today, Hezbollah faces a different situation altogether, lacking the protection and support it once enjoyed. In fact, the party today finds itself, as a result of its involvement in the ongoing Syrian war, facing near total Arab isolation. This comes amid intra-Muslim divisions that are degrading its image and transforming it from hero to antagonist.