ISTANBUL — The Syrian National Coalition (SNC) will either refuse to attend the Geneva II conference and lose the support of the international community, or agree to attend and lose Syria — that is, the armed opposition. The meeting of the 114-member SNC in Istanbul opened Nov. 9 with such a vital question. This is perhaps why the majority feels it is best hold off on such matters instead risking losing one side. As such, this meeting is turning out to look like yet another of the kind the armed groups fighting in Syria deride as “eating, drinking in hotel rooms and deciding on our behalf.”
Only this time, one can feel the American pressure on the parties to meet in Geneva. That may explain the massive media coverage of the Istanbul meeting. The agenda of the meeting includes, in addition to Geneva II, whether to accept the “transitional government” under Ahmed Toumeh and the Kurdish National Council (KNC) as members in the SNC.
According to information Al-Monitor gathered, the structure of the SNC, which has been rattled by constant turbulence, was discussed before tackling more critical issues. There was also discussion of the status of groups which were SNC members but had lost their field forces, and those who have expanded their forces and are now demanding more seats in the SNC.
Three possible courses for the opposition
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