The upcoming Iraqi general election in April 2014 is likely to be characterized by strong intra-sectarian competition, as opposed to previous elections that witnessed rivalries between predominantly Shiite and predominantly Sunni alliances. This is particularly true in the Shiite political arena, where rivalry is centered on three major forces: the State of Law Coalition (SLC), led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki; the Muqtada al-Sadr current; and the Supreme Islamic Council, headed by Ammar al-Hakim.

Ali Shalah, a SLC lawmaker, recently said that the Shiite National Alliance is probably going to break up into several groups. Previous reports indicated that the political bloc of Deputy Prime Minister Hussein al-Shahristani, Mustaqiluun (Independents) — which is still part of the SLC — is studying the option of entering the elections as a single party.

The same is true for the Iraqiya List, which has broken up into several groups within parliament also fractured during the last provincial election. Zuhair al-A’iraji, a lawmaker from one of these groups — Free Iraqiya — predicted that the coalition will be replaced by three competing groups. The Mutahidoun bloc, led by parliament speaker Osama al-Nujaifi, has recently emerged as the largest Sunni bloc but it failed to become an alternative umbrella for all Sunni factions, as has been shown by the results of the provincial election.    

For many, this might come as good news. The fragmentation of large coalitions with sectarian leaning could help de-escalate intercommunal tensions and direct electoral campaigns toward less sectarian agendas. However, this is not enough to say that sectarianism is no longer a powerful force. The intra-communal rivalry may become a conflict about who is better attached to the communal interests and, therefore, lead to more radicalization in the political discourse. Furthermore, this fragmentation is accompanied by the decline of cross-sectarian coalitions that were represented by the Iraqiya List, Unity of Iraq Coalition and, to a lesser extent, the SLC during the last general election in 2010.