On Oct. 27, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the deputy prime minister of the UAE and the minister of presidential affairs, said, “Arab support for Egypt will not last long, and Egypt must think about innovative, unconventional solutions.”
This "warning" statement seems at odds with what Egyptian Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi said the previous day, against the backdrop of his visit to the UAE. He said, "The agreement with the UAE includes full support to Egypt’s economy that starts with this new funding package obtained by Egypt within the framework agreement that was signed with the Emirati government Saturday evening. It includes a new $3.9 billion [in aid], and opens the doors wide for cooperation in the future." Perhaps Emirati officials felt that their Egyptian counterparts were seeking to commit them to limitless support that knows no ceiling or end. Thus, the minister of presidential affairs' statement came to urge Egyptians themselves to take responsibility in rescuing the economic situation in Egypt. In the absence of political stability, the government is often muscled into meeting social and labor demands despite the rising budget deficit. Successive governments have been unable to implement any real structural reform to generate real revenues or savings to finance these additional social benefits. If such a situation persists, any support provided by the UAE or other parties would be like giving a blood transfusion to patient who is continuously bleeding, without stitching up the wound.
Egypt's economic troubles can be simplified along the following points:
Growing budget deficit: During the past 10 years, the government began to spend much more than the money generated from taxes and other resources, such as Suez Canal revenue. In particular, most of the spending went to social welfare such as food and energy subsidies, and wage increases as a result of labor demands that escalated after the revolution. This led the budget deficit to rise from 134 billion pounds ($19.5 billion) to 205 billion pounds ($30 billion) in just three years! Unless serious reforms are implemented, the fiscal year 2013-2014 could end up with staggering 302 billion pounds ($44 billion) in deficit, roughly equivalent to 15% of gross domestic product (GDP), which is unsustainable and extremely dangerous according to the Egyptian Ministry of Finance’s own report.
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